Which countries will recognize Israel by December 31?
As of Sat, 17 Oct 2026 14:35:24 UTC, Polymarket traders price Venezuela (7.5%), Lebanon (6.5%), Tunisia (5.5%). The market has $389K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela | 7.5% | 7.5¢ | 92.5¢ |
| Lebanon | 6.5% | 6.5¢ | 93.5¢ |
| Tunisia | 5.5% | 5.5¢ | 94.5¢ |
| Saudi Arabia | 4.4% | 4.4¢ | 95.6¢ |
| Indonesia | 4.3% | 4.3¢ | 95.7¢ |
| Pakistan | 4.3% | 4.3¢ | 95.8¢ |
| Iraq | 4.2% | 4.2¢ | 95.9¢ |
| Syria | 3.5% | 3.5¢ | 96.5¢ |
| Kuwait | 3.4% | 3.4¢ | 96.6¢ |
| Cuba | 3.4% | 3.4¢ | 96.7¢ |
| North Korea | 3.3% | 3.3¢ | 96.8¢ |
| Afghanistan | 2.9% | 2.9¢ | 97.2¢ |
| Qatar | 2.8% | 2.8¢ | 97.3¢ |
| Iran | 2.7% | 2.7¢ | 97.3¢ |
| Malaysia | 2.5% | 2.5¢ | 97.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $389K
- Liquidity: $342K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed country officially recognizes Israel as a state between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Israel will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources
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