Which cities will the National Guard deploy to this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Chicago (26.0%), San Francisco (18.0%), Houston (15.0%). The market has $83K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| San Francisco | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Houston | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Detroit | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Portland | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $83K
- Liquidity: $83K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Chicago:
If the National Guard is deployed to Chicago after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Deployment means National Guard members arrive in Chicago on official deployment orders, under State Active Duty (SAD), Title 32, or Title 10 activation, for operational missions (not routine training), with actual presence in Chicago, not merely assigned or in transit. The following constitutes deployment and resolves YES: Governor activates Guard with deployment to Chicago Guard units arrive in Chicago on emergency orders Federal activation placing Guard in Chicago Inter-state Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) deployment to Chicago Pre-positioned Guard units activated for operations in Chicago Any number of Guard members (even one) officially deployed The following does NOT constitute deployment and resolves NO: Deployment announcements without actual arrival Guard placed on standby/alert status only Units staged outside Chicago without entering Training exercises or routine drills Guard members traveling through Chicago to another destination Planning/assessment teams without follow-on deployment Off-duty Guard members acting as civilians Guard at permanent facilities (armories) not on deployment orders Recruitment or community relations activities Canceled deployments that never materialize Special provisions: At least one Guard member must physically arrive in Chicago. Deployment must be for operational purposes, not training. If deplo…
Sources
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