Which coalition will form the next Israeli government?

As of Sat, 31 Oct 2026 23:19:45 UTC, Polymarket traders price No government formed (33.5%), Y + T + B + D (21.5%), Other (15.5%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.

Updated: Sat, 31 Oct 2026 23:19:45 UTC

Current odds

Outcome	Chance	Yes price	No price
No government formed	33.5%	33.5¢	66.5¢
Y + T + B + D	21.5%	21.5¢	78.5¢
Other	15.5%	15.5¢	84.5¢
L + Y + T	14.5%	14.5¢	85.5¢
L + Y + T + S + U	12.4%	12.4¢	87.5¢
Y + T + D + S + U	9.5%	9.5¢	90.5¢
L + Y + T + B	8.0%	8.0¢	92.0¢
Y + T + B + D + R	5.5%	5.5¢	94.5¢
Y + T + B + D + R + J	5.1%	5.1¢	94.8¢
Y + T + D + S + U + R	5.1%	5.1¢	94.9¢
L + S + U + O + Z + T	5.0%	5.0¢	95.0¢
Y + T	4.5%	4.5¢	95.5¢
L + S + U + O + Z + B	4.1%	4.1¢	95.9¢
L + S + U + O + Z + Y	3.6%	3.6¢	96.4¢
L + S + U + O + Z	3.6%	3.6¢	96.4¢

Market details

Venue: Polymarket
Volume: $3K
Liquidity: $99K
Closes: Sat, 01 Jan 2028

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the first ruling coalition of parties that forms after the 2026 Knesset election. The government is considered formed at the moment the newly elected Knesset approves the government in a vote of confidence. A party will only be considered part of the ruling coalition if it provides at least one Minister, including the Prime Minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, abstentions, or similar) without holding a Minister post will not qualify. A coalition does not need to hold a majority of seats in the Knesset; a government approved in a vote of confidence will qualify regardless of the number of seats held by its parties. Parties will be identified by the electoral lists on which they contested the 2026 Knesset election; any subsequent split, merger, or renaming of a list will be disregarded. In the listed options, “L” refers to Likud, “Y” to Yashar, “T” to Together, “S” to Shas, “U” to United Torah Judaism (UTJ), “O” to Otzma Yehudit (Otzma), “Z” to RZP-Zehut (RZP), “B” to Yisrael Beiteinu (YB), “D” to The Democrats (Democrats), “R” to Ra'am, and “J” to Joint List. This market will resolve to the listed option whose parties exactly match the parties included in the coalition. If the coalition includes any party not listed in an option, or does not include every party listed in an option, that option will resolve to “No”. If no listed option exactly m…

Sources

Source: Polymarket market

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