When will Canada lower tariffs on the US?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2027 (54.0%), Before Apr 1, 2027 (51.0%), Before Dec 1, 2026 (42.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 54.0% | 54.0¢ | 46.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 42.0% | 42.0¢ | 58.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2027:
If the Prime Minister of Canada has personally and officially announced a new decision made after Issuance committing Canada to reduce, remove, or suspend an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Only reporting from the Prime Minister of Canada qualifies for the purposes of this market. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. The publication must expressly commit Canada to reduce, remove, or suspend an existing Canadian tariff on U.S. goods. It must be an official speech, statement, or press release issued personally or in the prime minister's name. A specified future effective date qualifies. Minister- or agency-only announcements, negotiating objectives, noncommittal statements of intent that do not expressly commit Canada, general aspirations, preliminary discussions, threats, conditional proposals, and the automatic activation or expiry of a previously announced measure do NOT qualify. A new decision reversing an earlier tariff policy qualifies only if it reduces, removes, or suspends an existing tariff. Reports merely referencing publications before Issuance do NOT qualify unless they explicitly reaffirm a qualifying new decision made after Issuance.
Sources
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