When will CMS announce the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:03 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 20, 2029 (50.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (35.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (4.0%). The market has $21K in volume and closes on Sat, 27 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $21K
- Liquidity: $21K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 20, 2029:
If CMS announces the addition of GLP-1 drugs for obesity to Part D before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. GLP-1 drugs are already covered under Part D for type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular risk reduction and obstructive sleep apnea. Those indications are outside this market, which turns on coverage for obesity or chronic weight management. Only a completed CMS action that provides the coverage counts, such as a final rule, a finalized model design, or guidance to Part D sponsors through the Health Plan Management System. Where the White House or HHS makes the determination, the CMS document adopting it resolves this market, on the date of that document. The following do NOT resolve this market to YES: A CMS communication that discusses, studies or reports on such coverage. A proposed rule or a request for applications, which propose coverage rather than provide it. An action that considers the change and declines to make it. The Medicare GLP-1 Bridge, or extending or replacing it, because it sits outside the Part D benefit. An announcement covering only the Medicaid portion of the BALANCE Model. Coverage of a single drug, or of a subset of Part D enrollees, is sufficient. The announcement date governs, not the date coverage takes effect.
Sources
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