US retail jobs added this holiday season
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 350,000 jobs (51.0%), Above 500,000 jobs (50.0%), Above 600,000 jobs (50.0%). The market has $13K in volume and closes on Fri, 15 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 350,000 jobs | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| Above 500,000 jobs | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Above 600,000 jobs | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Above 300,000 jobs | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Above 550,000 jobs | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| Above 400,000 jobs | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Above 450,000 jobs | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $13K
- Liquidity: $13K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 350,000 jobs:
If the U.S. holiday-season net retail jobs added for September–December 2026 is above 350,000 jobs, then the market resolves to Yes. This market measures the net increase in U.S. retail trade payroll employment from September–December 2026 using BLS’s not-seasonally-adjusted “All employees, retail trade” series (CEU4200000001). The expiration value is the first published December 2026 level, converted from thousands to individual jobs, minus the fixed September baseline of 15,378,400 jobs. The initial December estimate is used even if labeled preliminary. Later corrections, revisions, and benchmark updates to either month are ignored. No additional rounding applies. The measure includes seasonal and nonseasonal jobs and reflects net employment growth, not gross hires or announced hiring plans.
Sources
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