Spanish general election: margin of victory
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 18:57:46 UTC, Kalshi traders price People's Party, 3-6% (25.0%), People's Party, 6-9% (23.0%), People's Party, 0-3% (15.0%). The market has $5K in volume and closes on Tue, 15 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| People's Party, 3-6% | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| People's Party, 6-9% | 23.0% | 23.0¢ | 77.0¢ |
| People's Party, 0-3% | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| People's Party, 9-12% | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
| PSOE, 0-3% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| People's Party, ≥12% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| PSOE, ≥3% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $5K
- Liquidity: $5K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for People's Party, 3-6%:
If the margin of victory for the People's Party in the 2026 Spanish general election is within 3% to 6%, then the market resolves to Yes. The margin of victory is the share of valid votes received by the party named in the market minus the share received by the party that finishes second if the named party finishes first, or minus the share of the party that finishes first if the named party does not. If the named party finishes first, the margin will be positive; if it does not, the margin will be negative; if it ties for first place, the margin shall be 0. Vote shares are the nationwide percentages of valid votes (which in Spain include blank ballots) in the official Congress of Deputies results published by the Ministerio del Interior, under which votes for a party's regional affiliate lists (for example, PSC-PSOE for PSOE) count toward that party. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied. For example, for consecutive ranges of 3-6% and 6-9%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 3-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-9% range.
Sources
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