Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:34:50 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (21.5%), November 30 (13.5%), October 31 (4.8%). The market has $50K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 21.5% | 21.5¢ | 78.5¢ |
| November 30 | 13.5% | 13.5¢ | 86.5¢ |
| October 31 | 4.8% | 4.8¢ | 95.3¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $50K
- Liquidity: $75K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Perim Island is no longer under Houthi control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “The Houthis” refers to the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including its governing institutions and any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf. “Perim Island” refers to Perim (Mayyun) Island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Yemen. “No longer under the control of the Houthis” means that the Houthis no longer exercise primary military control over Perim Island, and another state, occupying force, the internationally recognized government of Yemen, or an internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Houthi activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that the Houthis have lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Perim Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along wi…
Sources
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