Number of emergency rate cuts this year?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 23:56:01 UTC, Kalshi traders price 0 cuts (97.0%), 1 cut (2.0%), 2 cuts (1.8%). The market has $512K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 cuts | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| 1 cut | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| 2 cuts | 1.8% | 1.8¢ | 98.2¢ |
| 3 cuts | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| 4 cuts | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $512K
- Liquidity: $512K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 0 cuts:
If the Fed cuts the target federal funds rate exactly 0 times at emergency meetings in 2026, the market resolves to Yes. To be clear, 25bp of cuts is equal to one cut (so 25bp cut is 1, 50bp cut is 2, 75bp cut is 3, and so on).
Sources
Related markets
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