Number of Brazil rate cuts in 2026?
As of Sat, 17 Oct 2026 09:04:37 UTC, Kalshi traders price 7 or more cuts (70.0%), Exactly 6 cuts (25.0%), Exactly 5 cuts (6.0%). The market has $192K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7 or more cuts | 70.0% | 70.0¢ | 30.0¢ |
| Exactly 6 cuts | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| Exactly 5 cuts | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $192K
- Liquidity: $192K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 7 or more cuts:
If the total number of Central Bank of Brazil rate cuts for 2026 is at least 7 , then the market resolves to Yes. The Underlying is the number of discrete decreases in the Brazil interest rate value during calendar year 2026. Each separate decrease counts as one rate cut, regardless of the size of the decrease. For example, a decrease from 14.75% to 14.50% counts as one rate cut, and a decrease from 14.50% to 14.25% would count as another rate cut. Rate cuts before market issuance count, provided they occurred during calendar year 2026. As of issuance, Brazil has already had 2 qualifying 2026 rate cuts: the Selic target was reduced to 14.75% in March 2026 and to 14.50% in April 2026. Rate hikes do not offset prior rate cuts. If the Brazil interest rate is cut, then later hiked, then later cut again, the two cuts count separately.
Sources
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