How much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline next year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:03 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 5% (96.0%), Above 10% (86.0%), Above 15% (64.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Wed, 29 Sep 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5% | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 10% | 86.0% | 86.0¢ | 14.0¢ |
| Above 15% | 64.0% | 64.0¢ | 36.0¢ |
| Above 17% | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| Above 20% | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
| Above 25% | 22.0% | 22.0¢ | 78.0¢ |
| Above 30% | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 5%:
If the percent decline in CMS-reported nationwide ACA Marketplace effectuated enrollment is above 5% from February 2026 to February 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The percent decline equals 100 × (February 2026 enrollment − February 2027 enrollment) ÷ February 2026 enrollment, based on the exact figures reported under CMS’s nationwide “All” Marketplace category, or its equivalent aggregate combining HealthCare.gov and state-based Marketplaces, in CMS’s first official or non-preliminary release containing February 2027 data. Nationwide includes the 50 states and Washington, D.C.
Sources
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