How many PJM capacity emergency days will there be this year?
As of Fri, 23 Oct 2026 15:22:38 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 15 days (70.0%), Above 20 days (19.0%), Above 25 days (8.0%). The market has $165K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 15 days | 70.0% | 70.0¢ | 30.0¢ |
| Above 20 days | 19.0% | 19.0¢ | 81.0¢ |
| Above 25 days | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| Above 30 days | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $165K
- Liquidity: $165K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 15 days:
If the number of calendar days on which an RTO-wide PJM Maximum Generation Emergency/Load Management Alert – Capacity Emergency – NERC EEA 1 was applicable in 2026 is above 15 days, then the market resolves to Yes. A calendar day counts once if the specified emergency procedure was applicable for any portion of that day, regardless of how many separate postings were issued. Only postings applying to PJM-RTO will count; emergencies limited to individual zones or regions will not. Drills will not count. PJM’s Postings Report explicitly counts an event on each date for which it is applicable, including events that span multiple calendar days Clarification (09/02/26): PJM’s Postings Report identifies 11 eligible calendar days on which the specified alert was applicable through September 2. Although 12 non-drill days appear under “postings”, one of those dates, May 20, is excluded because the corresponding alert applied only to BGE, DOM, and PEPCO, rather than PJM-RTO. Drills are also excluded, and each qualifying calendar day is counted only once. Accordingly, the current resolution value is 11 qualifying days, and the “Above 10 days” market will be determined Yes. The other strikes remain undetermined.
Sources
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