How many executive orders will Trump sign in his second term?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Between 400 and 449 (20.0%), Between 450 and 499 (16.0%), Between 350 and 399 (14.0%). The market has $61K in volume and closes on Sat, 03 Feb 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Between 400 and 449 | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Between 450 and 499 | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Between 350 and 399 | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Between 500 and 549 | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Between 550 and 599 | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| Below 300 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Between 300 and 349 | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Between 600 and 649 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Between 700 and 749 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Between 750 and 800 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Between 650 and 699 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Above 800 | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $61K
- Liquidity: $61K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Between 400 and 449:
If the President signs between 400 and 449 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes. An Executive Order must be formally titled "Executive Order" followed by a number, signed by the President, and published in the Federal Register. Presidential Memoranda, Proclamations, Determinations, and other executive actions that are not formally numbered Executive Orders do not count. The signing date as recorded in the Federal Register determines which period an Executive Order belongs to, using ET timezone. Classified Executive Orders count if acknowledged by number. Executive Orders that are later revoked still count for the period they were signed. The Federal Register is the primary source; alternative sources are used only if the Federal Register explicitly states data is incomplete.
Sources
Related markets
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?
- Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.