How low will the S&P get this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price 6,300 or below (9.0%), 6,200 or below (8.0%), 6,000 or below (6.0%). The market has $1.0M in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 6,300 or below | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| 6,200 or below | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
| 6,000 or below | 6.0% | 6.0¢ | 94.0¢ |
| 6,100 or below | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| 5,900 or below | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1.0M
- Liquidity: $1.0M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 5,900 or below:
If the value of the S&P 500 index value starting Jan 1, 2026 and ending on Jan 1, 2027 is below 5900.01, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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