Which companies will be added to the S&P 500 in Q4?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:59:22 UTC, Kalshi traders price Twilio (96.0%), Cheniere Energy (30.0%), Astera Labs (24.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twilio | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Cheniere Energy | 30.0% | 30.0¢ | 70.0¢ |
| Astera Labs | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| Okta | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Credo Technology | 13.0% | 13.0¢ | 87.0¢ |
| Affirm Holdings | 12.0% | 12.0¢ | 88.0¢ |
| Snowflake | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Circle Internet Group | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| ATI | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| LPL Financial | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Natera | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Rocket Companies | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Southern Copper | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| TPG | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Tradeweb Markets | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Twilio:
If Twilio is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during October 1, 2026 to December 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first. The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period. Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator. If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion. For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market. If a spin-off or successor entity is immediately added in place of the original company, the original company is still considered removed. Regular scheduled rebalancing events count as additions or removals if the company's membership status changes during such rebalancing.
Sources
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