How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 17:24:48 UTC, Polymarket traders price 5.70% (57.0%), 5.80% (35.4%), 5.90% (21.5%). The market has $53K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5.70% | 57.0% | 57.0¢ | 43.0¢ |
| 5.80% | 35.4% | 35.4¢ | 64.6¢ |
| 5.90% | 21.5% | 21.5¢ | 78.5¢ |
| 6.00% | 13.8% | 13.8¢ | 86.2¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $53K
- Liquidity: $16K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 5.90%:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Sources
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