How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:23:01 UTC, Polymarket traders price Below 4.7% (26.5%), Below 4.6% (15.5%), Below 4.5% (6.6%). The market has $338K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.7% | 26.5% | 26.5¢ | 73.5¢ |
| Below 4.6% | 15.5% | 15.5¢ | 84.5¢ |
| Below 4.5% | 6.6% | 6.6¢ | 93.5¢ |
| Below 4.4% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
| Below 4.3% | 3.4% | 3.4¢ | 96.7¢ |
| Below 4.1% | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Below 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.9¢ | 97.2¢ |
| Below 4.2% | 2.3% | 2.3¢ | 97.7¢ |
| Below 2.0% | 2.1% | 2.1¢ | 97.9¢ |
| Below 3.8% | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Below 3.0% | 1.7% | 1.7¢ | 98.3¢ |
| Below 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.4¢ | 98.6¢ |
| Below 3.6% | 1.4% | 1.4¢ | 98.6¢ |
| Below 3.7% | 1.3% | 1.3¢ | 98.7¢ |
| Below 3.5% | 1.2% | 1.2¢ | 98.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $338K
- Liquidity: $58K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Below 4.7%:
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
Sources
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