How low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:26:12 UTC, Polymarket traders price Below 4.70% (88.5%), Below 4.60% (72.0%), Below 4.50% (56.5%). The market has $11K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Below 4.70% | 88.5% | 88.5¢ | 11.5¢ |
| Below 4.60% | 72.0% | 72.0¢ | 28.0¢ |
| Below 4.50% | 56.5% | 56.5¢ | 43.5¢ |
| Below 4.40% | 31.5% | 31.5¢ | 68.5¢ |
| Below 4.30% | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Below 4.20% | 16.0% | 16.0¢ | 84.0¢ |
| Below 4.10% | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| Below 4.00% | 7.6% | 7.6¢ | 92.4¢ |
| Below 3.90% | 3.4% | 3.4¢ | 96.6¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $11K
- Liquidity: $7K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 2-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for the final business day of 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for the final business day of 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "2 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Sources
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