How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 18:32:37 UTC, Polymarket traders price Below 5.20% (37.5%), Below 5.15% (23.0%), Below 5.10% (19.5%). The market has $59K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Below 5.20%37.5%37.5¢62.5¢
Below 5.15%23.0%23.0¢77.0¢
Below 5.10%19.5%19.5¢80.5¢
Below 5.00%15.0%15.0¢85.0¢
Below 5.05%14.5%14.5¢85.5¢
Below 4.95%13.0%13.0¢87.0¢
Below 4.90%6.5%6.5¢93.5¢
Below 4.80%4.8%4.8¢95.3¢
Below 4.60%3.5%3.5¢96.5¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 30-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "30 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).

Sources

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