Houthi military action against Israel by...?
As of Wed, 21 Oct 2026 08:46:58 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (25.0%), October 31 (3.9%). The market has $38K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
| October 31 | 3.9% | 3.9¢ | 96.2¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $38K
- Liquidity: $33K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Houthis take a qualifying military action against Israel by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time (IDT, GMT+3). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the Houthis, that directly impacts Israeli ground territory. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Israeli ground territory do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. "Israeli ground territory" refers to land internationally recognized as part of the State of Israel, including all…
Sources
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