Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 15:34:25 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (14.5%). The market has $112K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14.5% | 14.5¢ | 85.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $112K
- Liquidity: $411K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Sources
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