2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:57:41 UTC, Polymarket traders price Jean-Luc Mélenchon (93.7%), Marine Le Pen (91.5%), Fabien Roussel (86.0%). The market has $369K in volume and closes on Thu, 01 Jul 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 93.7% | 93.7¢ | 6.3¢ |
| Marine Le Pen | 91.5% | 91.5¢ | 8.5¢ |
| Fabien Roussel | 86.0% | 86.0¢ | 14.0¢ |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 86.0% | 86.0¢ | 14.0¢ |
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 83.0% | 83.0¢ | 17.0¢ |
| Édouard Philippe | 83.0% | 83.0¢ | 17.0¢ |
| David Lisnard | 82.0% | 82.0¢ | 18.0¢ |
| Éric Zemmour | 81.0% | 81.0¢ | 19.0¢ |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 68.5% | 68.5¢ | 31.5¢ |
| Bruno Retailleau | 59.5% | 59.5¢ | 40.5¢ |
| Marine Tondelier | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Dominique de Villepin | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Gabriel Attal | 28.5% | 28.5¢ | 71.5¢ |
| François Hollande | 25.5% | 25.5¢ | 74.5¢ |
| François Ruffin | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $369K
- Liquidity: $629K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
The next French presidential election is currently expected to be held in April 2027. Prior to the election, the French Constitutional Council is expected to publish the official list of candidates to be included on the ballot for the first round of this election. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual is included on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no such candidate list is published prior to the election, this market will resolve based on which candidates actually appear on the ballot when the election takes place. If no list is published and the specified election does not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official candidate list published by the French Constitutional Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources
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