Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
As of Fri, 23 Oct 2026 00:14:45 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (5.5%). The market has $154 in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.5% | 5.5¢ | 94.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $154
- Liquidity: $32K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk. The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution. A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them. Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an offi…
Sources
Related markets
- Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
- Iran leader end of 2026?
- NATO x Russia military clash by...?
- Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
- Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.