Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 15:16:39 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2027 (69.0%), November 30, 2027 (64.0%), October 31, 2027 (62.0%). The market has $165K in volume and closes on Sat, 01 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2027 | 69.0% | 69.0¢ | 31.0¢ |
| November 30, 2027 | 64.0% | 64.0¢ | 36.0¢ |
| October 31, 2027 | 62.0% | 62.0¢ | 38.0¢ |
| September 30, 2027 | 57.5% | 57.5¢ | 42.5¢ |
| August 31, 2027 | 55.0% | 55.0¢ | 45.0¢ |
| July 31, 2027 | 53.0% | 53.0¢ | 47.0¢ |
| June 30, 2027 | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| May 31, 2027 | 48.5% | 48.5¢ | 51.5¢ |
| April 30, 2027 | 38.5% | 38.5¢ | 61.5¢ |
| March 31, 2027 | 30.5% | 30.5¢ | 69.5¢ |
| February 28, 2027 | 26.0% | 26.0¢ | 74.0¢ |
| January 31, 2027 | 19.5% | 19.5¢ | 80.5¢ |
| December 31 | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| November 30 | 6.5% | 6.5¢ | 93.5¢ |
| October 31 | 3.3% | 3.3¢ | 96.8¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $165K
- Liquidity: $1.2M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries. A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify. Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement. Only agreements which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify. If a qualifying agreement is officially reached before this market’s end date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire agreement officially takes effect after that date. The primary resolution sources for this market will be offic…
Sources
Related markets
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
- Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Will Alberta join the US?
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.