Will Trump declare an election emergency?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 13:09:32 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 1, 2027 (29.0%), Before Nov 4, 2026 (10.0%). The market has $395K in volume and closes on Tue, 03 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 29.0% | 29.0¢ | 71.0¢ |
| Before Nov 4, 2026 | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $395K
- Liquidity: $395K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 1, 2027:
If Donald Trump has taken any executive action declaring a national emergency regarding the 2026 United States midterm election before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary. Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included. Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify. The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.
Sources
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