Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
As of Sat, 07 Nov 2026 03:46:42 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (10.0%). The market has $285K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 10.0% | 10.0¢ | 90.0¢ |
Prices on other venues
| Outcome | Venue | Chance | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | Limitless | 10.5% |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $285K
- Liquidity: $469K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Sources
Related markets
- US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
- How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
- Iran leader end of 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
- Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.