US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?
As of Wed, 04 Nov 2026 10:49:12 UTC, Polymarket traders price November 5 (96.5%), November 6 (91.0%), November 8 (80.5%). The market has $20K in volume and closes on Fri, 06 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 5 | 96.5% | 96.5¢ | 3.5¢ |
| November 6 | 91.0% | 91.0¢ | 9.0¢ |
| November 8 | 80.5% | 80.5¢ | 19.5¢ |
| November 15 | 56.5% | 56.5¢ | 43.5¢ |
| November 30 | 42.5% | 42.5¢ | 57.5¢ |
| December 31 | 31.5% | 31.5¢ | 68.5¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $20K
- Liquidity: $52K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not enc…
Sources
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