US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 09:36:42 UTC, Polymarket traders price October 22 (92.4%), October 24 (88.5%), October 28 (81.5%). The market has $1.8M in volume and closes on Fri, 23 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| October 22 | 92.4% | 92.4¢ | 7.6¢ |
| October 24 | 88.5% | 88.5¢ | 11.5¢ |
| October 28 | 81.5% | 81.5¢ | 18.5¢ |
| October 31 | 78.5% | 78.5¢ | 21.5¢ |
| November 8 | 66.0% | 66.0¢ | 34.0¢ |
| November 15 | 55.5% | 55.5¢ | 44.5¢ |
| November 22 | 49.5% | 49.5¢ | 50.5¢ |
| November 30 | 43.5% | 43.5¢ | 56.5¢ |
| December 31 | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $1.8M
- Liquidity: $963K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territori…
Sources
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