Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? — odds by venue

As of Oct 26, 2026, 09:56 UTC, trades at 19% on Polymarket. Combined volume: $146.9K.

Venues

• Polymarket: Volume $146.8K · Liquidity $351K · Price time —
• Limitless: Volume $48 · Liquidity — · Price time —

Resolution rules

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Limitless

<p>This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".</p><p><br></p><p>For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.</p><p><br></p><p>The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.</p>