Will the independence of the judiciary be weakened during Trump's term?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:02 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (20.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Sat, 20 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If US judicial independence is undermined before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. This is defined as any of the following occurring: An executive order alters the structure of the judiciary. Such an order is considered to alter the judiciary’s structure if it does any of: a) modifies the number, organization, or composition of Article III courts (for example, changing the number of circuits or reassigning judges to different courts) b) changes the scope or limits the jurisdiction of federal courts in a manner that reduces their constitutionally guaranteed authority or c) alters the established procedures for the nomination, confirmation, or lifetime tenure of Article III judges (for example, by replacing lifetime tenure with term limits or otherwise diminishing the constitutional protections afforded to federal judges). A bill becomes law that undermines judicial independence. Such a bill is considered to do so if it does any of: a) alters the jurisdiction or powers of the federal judiciary in a manner that is inconsistent with the established constitutional framework b) changes the lifetime appointment provisions for Article III judges—such as by replacing lifetime tenure with fixed terms or altering the removal process—thereby diminishing their constitutional protections or c) explicitly removes or materially reduces any protections guaranteed to federal judges under Article III of the Constitution. Any federal judges are removed outside of the impeachment p…
Sources
Related markets
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Who will leave their role in the Trump administration this year?
- Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Who will be Trump's next Press Secretary?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.