Will the DOJ fine Nvidia over the Groq deal this year?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (9.0%). The market has $2K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $2K
- Liquidity: $2K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If the U.S. Department of Justice announces a fine or civil/criminal monetary penalty imposed on Nvidia, or agreed to by Nvidia in a settlement, concerning the Groq licensing deal announced on December 24, 2025 before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. An agreed settlement can qualify before court approval. Investigations, information demands, subpoenas, civil investigative demands, requests for penalties, statements about possible future fines, nonmonetary relief, and unrelated fines do NOT count.
Sources
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