Will Section IV of the 25th Amendment be used during Trump's Presidency?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:56 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 20, 2029 (21.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (15.0%), Before Jan 1, 2027 (7.0%). The market has $193K in volume and closes on Sat, 20 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 15.0% | 15.0¢ | 85.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $193K
- Liquidity: $193K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 20, 2029:
If, as part of Section IV of the 25th Amendment, the Vice President (and a majority of the Cabinet or some other body designated by Congress) transmit to Congress a written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office before January 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
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