Will SCOTUS require bond hearings for prolonged mandatory immigration detention?
As of Fri, 18 Sep 2026 06:31:29 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (5.0%). The market has $8K in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Aug 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $8K
- Liquidity: $8K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If the Supreme Court, in Genalo v. Black, rules detention under 8 U.S.C. § 1226(c) can become unreasonably prolonged such that due process requires a bond hearing, then the market resolves to Yes. The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values that the Supreme Court has ruled that an alien’s detention under 8 U.S.C. § 1226(c), pending a decision on removal, can become unreasonably prolonged such that the Due Process Clause requires a bond hearing, after Issuance and before August 1, 2028. A ruling that due process does not require such a hearing resolves to No. The Court’s separate determination regarding whether the government must justify continued detention by clear and convincing evidence does not independently determine resolution. If the Court dismisses the case as moot, finds certiorari improvidently granted, or remands or otherwise disposes of the case without deciding whether unreasonably prolonged detention requires a bond hearing, the market resolves to No.
Sources
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