Will SCOTUS let USPS enforce ballot-mail rules?
As of Sat, 17 Oct 2026 09:05:10 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (3.0%). The market has $9K in volume and closes on Tue, 10 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $9K
- Liquidity: $9K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If the U.S. Supreme Court rules that USPS may enforce both the Federal Ballot Mail Portal registration or enrollment requirements and the related outbound federal ballot-mail pre-acceptance verification requirements for elections on or before November 3, 2026 in any Supreme Court proceeding arising from State of California, et al. v. United States Postal Service, et al., D. Mass. No. 1:26-cv-13917-IT before Nov 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The specified Case is any Supreme Court proceeding arising from State of California, et al. v. United States Postal Service, et al., D. Mass. No. 1:26-cv-13917-IT. The ruling must: Be issued in a written order, opinion, judgment, or decision by the U.S. Supreme Court in that proceeding Address the matter described by the specified judgment The following do NOT satisfy the Payout Criterion: A procedural standing or ripeness order that does not itself permit enforcement A grant or denial of certiorari without operative relief A temporary administrative stay entered only for briefing or consideration Oral, tentative, leaked, scheduling, show-cause, or non-substantive minute orders Relief limited to envelope design, voluntary portal development, or another provision without both specified components A stay or vacatur qualifies only if its operative text itself permits the portal and verification requirements to be enforced. The August 24 order in Trump v. California does NOT qualify. Per curiam opinions and summary orders coun…
Sources
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