Will courts let the 75-country visa suspension resume?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yes (38.0%). The market has $4K in volume and closes on Thu, 24 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 38.0% | 38.0¢ | 62.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $4K
- Liquidity: $4K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
If federal courts have unblocked the policy suspending immigrant visa processing for 75 countries before Nov 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Unblocking means any federal court, including the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit or the U.S. Supreme Court, lifting, staying, narrowing or reversing the vacatur in Catholic Legal Immigration Network, Inc. v. Rubio, No. 1:26-cv-00858 (S.D.N.Y.), so that the visa suspension policy may resume operation. An administrative or temporary stay that permits the policy to resume counts, even if it is later dissolved A ruling that narrows the vacatur to the named plaintiffs counts, because the policy may then resume as to everyone else Denial of a stay motion, or no ruling permitting the policy to resume, resolves this market NO If the Executive Branch rescinds the vacated policy and issues a new suspension under different authority, that does NOT count, because it is not an action of the federal judiciary
Sources
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