Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?

As of Wed, 21 Oct 2026 08:20:57 UTC, Polymarket traders price Yes (15.5%). The market has $56K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Yes15.5%15.5¢84.5¢

Market details

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Israeli ambassador is expelled from their assigned country by the government of that country between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59: PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any expulsion from a country where an Israeli ambassador is assigned as of the time of this market’s creation will qualify. For the purposes of resolving this market, an official announcement that a Israeli ambassador will be or is being expelled will suffice regardless of whether or not the respective ambassador leaves the country within this market’s timeframe. Qualifying announcements must be definitive, unambiguous, official statements issued by an authorized governmental person or entity. Whether the ambassador resigns, is recalled, or otherwise departs voluntarily will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Israel, including the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, as well as official information from the relevant expelling government; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sources

Related markets

DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.