Will a cabinet member be impeached?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:12:00 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before Jan 20, 2029 (70.0%), Before Jan 1, 2028 (66.0%), Before Oct 1, 2027 (55.0%). The market has $208K in volume and closes on Sat, 20 Jan 2029.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 20, 2029 | 70.0% | 70.0¢ | 30.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 66.0% | 66.0¢ | 34.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 55.0% | 55.0¢ | 45.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 43.0% | 43.0¢ | 57.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 21.0% | 21.0¢ | 79.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $208K
- Liquidity: $208K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before Jan 20, 2029:
If a member of the cabinet is impeached by the U.S. House of Representatives before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes. The cabinet is defined as the following: the Vice President, Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury, Secretary of Defense, Attorney General, Secretary of the Interior, Secretary of Agriculture, Secretary of Commerce, Secretary of Labor, Secretary of Health and Human Services, Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, Secretary of Transportation, Secretary of Energy, Secretary of Education, Secretary of Veterans Affairs, Secretary of Homeland Security, Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency, Director of the Office of Management and Budget, Director of National Intelligence, Trade Representative, Administrator of the Small Business Administration, and White House Chief of Staff.
Sources
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