Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 10:41:27 UTC, Polymarket traders price Other (50.0%), Alan Campbell (13.3%), John Healey (8.5%). The market has $138K in volume and closes on Fri, 31 Dec 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Alan Campbell | 13.3% | 13.3¢ | 86.7¢ |
| John Healey | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| Chris Bryant | 4.7% | 4.7¢ | 95.3¢ |
| Yvette Cooper | 4.5% | 4.5¢ | 95.5¢ |
| Angela Smith | 4.5% | 4.5¢ | 95.5¢ |
| Lucy Powell | 4.3% | 4.3¢ | 95.7¢ |
| Pat McFadden | 4.3% | 4.3¢ | 95.8¢ |
| Miatta Fahnbulleh | 4.3% | 4.3¢ | 95.8¢ |
| Bridget Phillipson | 4.2% | 4.2¢ | 95.9¢ |
| Douglas Alexander | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Angela Rayner | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Lisa Nandy | 3.9% | 3.9¢ | 96.1¢ |
| Jonathan Reynolds | 3.8% | 3.8¢ | 96.2¢ |
| Angela Eagle | 3.6% | 3.6¢ | 96.4¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $138K
- Liquidity: $195K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. The departure will be considered to be announced when the specified individual, Andy Burnham, the Government of the United Kingdom, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that the specified individual has ceased or will cease to hold a United Kingdom cabinet position. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person's resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither "I will leave office in 2 years," nor "I will not be in office forever," would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person's duties in the specified position do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requir…
Sources
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