Which of these parties will win a seat in the Berlin state election?
As of Sat, 10 Oct 2026 22:59:21 UTC, Kalshi traders price BSW (2.0%), FDP (2.0%), Volt (2.0%). The market has $12K in volume and closes on Mon, 02 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| BSW | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| FDP | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
| Volt | 2.0% | 2.0¢ | 98.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $12K
- Liquidity: $12K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for BSW:
If BSW has won at least 1 seat in the 2026 Berlin state election, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature. Only seats in the Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus count. Seats won in the district assembly (Bezirksverordnetenversammlung) elections held the same day do not count.
Sources
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