Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:59:16 UTC, Kalshi traders price Hodge Conjecture (45.0%), Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture (28.0%), Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem (24.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Sat, 07 Jan 2045.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hodge Conjecture | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer Conjecture | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Yang–Mills Existence and Mass Gap Problem | 24.0% | 24.0¢ | 76.0¢ |
| P versus NP Problem | 4.0% | 4.0¢ | 96.0¢ |
| Riemann Hypothesis | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Hodge Conjecture:
If Hodge Conjecture is the first Millennium Prize Problem solved after Issuance, then the market resolves to Yes. A Millennium Prize Problem is considered Solved at the earliest time that any of the following occurs: A complete proof, disproof, or counterexample addressing the problem as officially formulated is published in a peer-reviewed journal. The Clay Mathematics Institute or another recognized authoritative academic body officially recognizes in writing that the problem has been resolved by reference to a specific written work. At least two Source Agencies report that the problem has been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work. If multiple problems have the same Solution Time, each is treated as the next problem Solved and the market resolves to 1/N, where N is the number of tied problems. A qualifying solution ceases to count if, before Expiration, it is formally retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, rescinded, or found to contain an identified and unaddressed error.
Sources
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