Which lists will win a Knesset seat?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:59 UTC, Kalshi traders price Yisrael Beiteinu (97.0%), Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad) (96.0%), Likud (96.0%). The market has $25K in volume and closes on Wed, 11 Nov 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yisrael Beiteinu | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| Joint List (Hadash–Ta'al–Balad) | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Likud | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Shas | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Yashar | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Otzma Yehudit | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Together | 94.0% | 94.0¢ | 6.0¢ |
| Ra'am | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| The Democrats | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| United Torah Judaism | 92.0% | 92.0¢ | 8.0¢ |
| RZP-Zehut | 84.0% | 84.0¢ | 16.0¢ |
| Reservists–Economic Party | 48.0% | 48.0¢ | 52.0¢ |
| People of Israel | 27.0% | 27.0¢ | 73.0¢ |
| Zehut | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Haredi Public | 8.0% | 8.0¢ | 92.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $25K
- Liquidity: $25K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Yisrael Beiteinu:
If Yisrael Beiteinu has won at least 1 seat in the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes. A seat is considered "won" when a candidate affiliated with the specified party has been declared elected by the relevant electoral authority and either: The time for legal challenges has expired Challenges have been resolved The member has taken their seat Party affiliation is determined by the party under whose banner the candidate was elected, regardless of subsequent changes. The count is determined when the new legislature takes their seats, even if some seats remain vacant or challenged. If the election is postponed beyond one year from the original date or cancelled entirely, the market resolves to the last fair market price. Only seats actually contested and filled are counted in partial elections. By-elections after the main election are included only if seated simultaneously with the rest of the legislature. Joint candidate lists count as single entities; their seats are not credited separately to constituent parties. A newly formed joint or merged list is a separate entity. A name change alone does not change a list's identity. A politician elected on another list does not count for their former party or list. Surplus-vote agreements and post-election coalitions do not combine seat outcomes. A seat won by an unlisted list does not resolve any listed market Yes.
Sources
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