Which bloc will win the most Knesset seats?

As of Mon, 26 Oct 2026 17:45:13 UTC, Kalshi traders price Opposition bloc (51.0%), Netanyahu bloc (41.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Tue, 03 Nov 2026.

Updated:

Current odds

OutcomeChanceYes priceNo price
Opposition bloc51.0%51.0¢49.0¢
Netanyahu bloc41.0%41.0¢59.0¢

Market details

Resolution rules

Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Opposition bloc:

If the bloc of The Democrats, Yashar, Together, and Yisrael Beiteinu holds the most total seats in the Knesset following the 2026 Israeli legislative election, then the market resolves to Yes. Rankings are determined by total seat count after the election, including seats not contested. A seat is won when the candidate is declared elected by the electoral authority and either the challenge period has expired, legal challenges are resolved, or the member has taken their seat. Party affiliation is based on the party under which the candidate was elected, regardless of later changes. In case of ties for a rank, all tied parties at that rank resolve to Yes with values split proportionally. If a ranking is skipped due to ties (e.g., two parties tie for #1, next is #3), markets for the skipped rank (#2) resolve to No. The two blocs are ranked against each other. Each bloc's seat total is the combined number of seats won by the lists named for it, including all seats won by a named joint list. Seats won by any other list count toward neither bloc, and surplus-vote agreements and post-election coalitions do not change either bloc's total. Amcha Yisrael means the list led by Ofer Winter, also reported as People of Israel. If both blocs win the same number of seats, both markets resolve to Yes at $0.50.

Sources

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