When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:53 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before 2028 (76.0%), Before May 1, 2027 (54.0%), Before Apr 1, 2027 (50.0%). The market has $1.8M in volume and closes on Tue, 01 Jun 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2028 | 76.0% | 76.0¢ | 24.0¢ |
| Before May 1, 2027 | 54.0% | 54.0¢ | 46.0¢ |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| Before Mar 1, 2027 | 45.0% | 45.0¢ | 55.0¢ |
| Before Feb 1, 2027 | 35.0% | 35.0¢ | 65.0¢ |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 9.0% | 9.0¢ | 91.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $1.8M
- Liquidity: $1.8M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before 2028:
If Tesla or SpaceX officially announces a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. The announcement must be made through official company channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements through official channels qualify. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, third-party announcements without company confirmation, and preliminary discussions do not qualify. The announcement must occur after market issuance. Companies are tracked through rebranding and name changes representing the same business entity. This market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer and which is the target. A Tesla acquisition of SpaceX, a SpaceX acquisition of Tesla, a reverse merger, or a stock-for-stock combination all satisfy the Payout Criterion equally, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced. A statement by Elon Musk shall only satisfy the Payout Criterion if it constitutes an unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement — not an expression of intent, a hypothetical, a negoti…
Sources
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