When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:57 UTC, Kalshi traders price Before 2028 (64.0%), Before Jul 1, 2027 (47.0%), Before 2027 (31.0%). The market has $14K in volume and closes on Fri, 07 Jan 2028.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Before 2028 | 64.0% | 64.0¢ | 36.0¢ |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 47.0% | 47.0¢ | 53.0¢ |
| Before 2027 | 31.0% | 31.0¢ | 69.0¢ |
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 20.0% | 20.0¢ | 80.0¢ |
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 7.0% | 7.0¢ | 93.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $14K
- Liquidity: $14K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Before 2028:
If any AI lab solves another Millennium Prize Problem after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes. A Millennium Prize Problem counts as solved on the first date that, by Expiration, remains unretracted and either: A complete proof, disproof, or counterexample addressing the problem as originally formulated by the Clay Mathematics Institute is published in a reputable peer-reviewed mathematics or scientific journal. CMI or another recognized academic governing or recognition body officially states that the problem has been resolved by reference to a specific written work. At least two Source Agencies themselves report that the problem has been proven, disproven, or otherwise resolved by reference to a specific publicly available written work. A preprint, announcement, blog post, conference presentation, technical report, or machine-checked formalization does NOT by itself constitute a solution, but may be the written work relied upon for official recognition or qualifying Source Agency reporting. Award of a Millennium Prize by CMI is NOT required. Partial results, special cases, unrelated reformulations, results conditional on unproven assumptions, and findings that the problem is independent of or undecidable within its framework do NOT count. The result must establish the truth or falsity of the problem as originally formulated. A solution is attributed to AI lab when Source Agencies report that AI lab, its personnel, or an AI system develope…
Sources
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