What will the tariff rate on Canadian imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 22:29:04 UTC, Kalshi traders price 10% or above (86.0%), 40% or above (51.0%), 50% or above (51.0%). The market has $3K in volume and closes on Fri, 08 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10% or above | 86.0% | 86.0¢ | 14.0¢ |
| 40% or above | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| 50% or above | 51.0% | 51.0¢ | 49.0¢ |
| 15% or above | 50.0% | 50.0¢ | 50.0¢ |
| 20% or above | 44.0% | 44.0¢ | 56.0¢ |
| 30% or above | 25.0% | 25.0¢ | 75.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $3K
- Liquidity: $3K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for 10% or above:
If the general import tariff rate on imports from Canada into the United States on Jan 1, 2027 is at least 10%, then the market resolves to Yes. The market resolves based on the general import tariff rate that is actually in effect (i.e., being collected) on the specified date. This includes both universal tariffs on all U.S. imports and country-specific tariffs on the specified country. Only tariffs that are currently active and being collected count - announced but not implemented tariffs, paused tariffs, or suspended tariffs do not qualify. The tariff rate refers to the general baseline rate, not including product-specific duties or exemptions. If multiple general rates apply, the general import tariff rate is the sum of all applicable general rates in effect. Examples (for date = Jan 1, 2026): India: 25% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326) + 25% Russian Oil Penalty (EO 14329) = 50% China: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14358) + 10% Fentanyl Duty (EO 14357) = 20% European Union: 15% Reciprocal Tariff "Floor" (EO 14326) Falkland Islands: 10% Reciprocal Tariff (EO 14326)
Sources
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