Venezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 11:45:07 UTC, Polymarket traders price Delcy Rodríguez (94.6%), María Corina Machado (3.0%), Dinorah Figuera (1.4%). The market has $53K in volume and closes on Thu, 31 Dec 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Delcy Rodríguez | 94.6% | 94.6¢ | 5.4¢ |
| María Corina Machado | 3.0% | 3.0¢ | 97.0¢ |
| Dinorah Figuera | 1.4% | 1.4¢ | 98.6¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 1.1% | 1.1¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Diosdado Cabello Rondón | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
| Nicolás Maduro | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
| Donald Trump | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
| Vladimir Padrino López | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
| No Head of State | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
| Jorge Rodríguez | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
| Richard Grenell | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
| Evan Pettus | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 99.9¢ |
| Edmundo González | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Frank Donovan | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
| Dan Caine | 0.1% | 0.1¢ | 100.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $53K
- Liquidity: $406K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Venezuela on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary executive authority over the Venezuelan state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Venezuela’s territory at the specified time. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing w…
Sources
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