UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026
As of Wed, 30 Sep 2026 19:25:25 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 4.40% (97.0%), Above 4.80% (96.0%), Above 3.80% (95.0%). The market has $49K in volume and closes on Wed, 07 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 4.40% | 97.0% | 97.0¢ | 3.0¢ |
| Above 4.80% | 96.0% | 96.0¢ | 4.0¢ |
| Above 3.80% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 4.10% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 3.40% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 3.50% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 3.60% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 3.70% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 3.30% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 4.20% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 3.90% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 4.00% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 3.20% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 4.60% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
| Above 4.30% | 95.0% | 95.0¢ | 5.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $49K
- Liquidity: $49K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 4.40%:
If U.S. Treasury Daily Yield Curve Rate (2 Yr) for Sep 30, 2026 (end of Q3 2026) is above 4.40%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Sources
Related markets
- Fed decision in October?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Will the Fed do a rate cut greater than 25bps this year?
- Number of emergency rate cuts this year?
- Fed funds rate after October meeting?
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.