Fed decision in October?
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 06:53:36 UTC, Kalshi traders price Fed maintains rate (85.0%), Hike 25bps (14.0%), Cut 25bps (1.0%). The market has $12.6M in volume and closes on Wed, 28 Oct 2026.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fed maintains rate | 85.0% | 85.0¢ | 15.0¢ |
| Hike 25bps | 14.0% | 14.0¢ | 86.0¢ |
| Cut 25bps | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Cut >25bps | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
| Hike >25bps | 1.0% | 1.0¢ | 99.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $12.6M
- Liquidity: $12.6M
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Fed maintains rate:
If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of 0bps on October 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. The outcomes are mutually exclusive: at most one can resolve to Yes. For example, a 50-basis-point hike resolves “Hike 25 bps” to Yes and “Hike 25 bps” to No. If the scheduled FOMC meeting is canceled and does not occur on its scheduled date, “Fed maintains rate” resolves to Yes and all other outcomes resolve to No.
Sources
Related markets
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