Turkey military action against Yemen by...?
As of Mon, 19 Oct 2026 20:01:04 UTC, Polymarket traders price December 31 (8.5%), October 31 (0.7%). The market has $6K in volume and closes on Fri, 01 Jan 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 8.5% | 8.5¢ | 91.5¢ |
| October 31 | 0.7% | 0.7¢ | 99.3¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Polymarket
- Volume: $6K
- Liquidity: $23K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Turkey takes a qualifying military action against Yemen between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Yemen Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Turkey, that directly impacts Yemen. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Turkey. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Turkey directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed befor…
Sources
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