Social Security COLA for 2028
As of Tue, 20 Oct 2026 11:11:59 UTC, Kalshi traders price Above 1.5% (83.0%), Above 2.0% (71.0%), Above 2.5% (52.0%). The market has $10K in volume and closes on Wed, 20 Oct 2027.
Updated:
Current odds
| Outcome | Chance | Yes price | No price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.5% | 83.0% | 83.0¢ | 17.0¢ |
| Above 2.0% | 71.0% | 71.0¢ | 29.0¢ |
| Above 2.5% | 52.0% | 52.0¢ | 48.0¢ |
| Above 3.0% | 34.0% | 34.0¢ | 66.0¢ |
| Above 3.5% | 28.0% | 28.0¢ | 72.0¢ |
| Above 4.0% | 18.0% | 18.0¢ | 82.0¢ |
| Above 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.0¢ | 95.0¢ |
Market details
- Venue: Kalshi
- Volume: $10K
- Liquidity: $10K
- Closes:
Resolution rules
Each outcome is a separate contract with its own rules. The rules for Above 1.5%:
If the cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, as initially announced by the Social Security Administration, is above 1.5%, then the market resolves to Yes. For purposes of this market, the “2028 Social Security COLA” means the percentage cost-of-living adjustment applied to Social Security benefits payable for December 2027, which are generally paid in January 2028. The market will be determined using the initial percentage officially announced by the Social Security Administration. Subsequent revisions, corrections, or legislative changes will not be considered. This market concerns the gross Social Security cost-of-living adjustment and does not concern changes in Medicare premiums or the resulting net amount received by any beneficiary.
Sources
Related markets
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- CPI in September
- How high will inflation get this year?
- CPI in October
- Core CPI in October
- CPI YoY in November
DOXA is a liquidity aggregator for prediction markets that compares odds and depth across Polymarket, Kalshi and others and routes each trade for best execution with an AI assistant.